Global Risks & Market Outlook 2012
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|Global risks & Sectors of Finance & Telecom||13/10/2012 / Edition 3
MAIN ISSUES OF GLOBAL RISKS
The risk of a disorderly Greek default escalated after euro area finance ministers failed to decide how to handle the crisis at an emergency meeting on June 14. A deadlock developed on how to encourage or force the private sector to bear some of the cost of a debt extension, re-profiling or restructuring.
Meanwhile, Moody’s Investors Service placed the stand-alone financial strength ratings of three major French banks on review for a possible downgrade, citing their holdings of Greek public and private debt and the potential impact of a possible default.
The Day after Default
“Recent market action suggests that investors have largely prepared for the eventual certainty of a Greek credit event, but the markets remain vulnerable to a broader contagion from a eurozone government default across sovereigns, financial-sector and risk assets,” says Lena Komileva, London-based global head of G10 strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. “Ultimately, the risk is no longer Greek default but [what happens] the day after Greece defaults.”
The markets are reacting to the political risk of the EU’s management of the crisis, rather than the probability of a Greek credit event per se, according to Komileva. “The difference is between a managed and unmanaged default scenario for Greece,” she says. “This is what will ultimately mark the difference between a government’s solvency crisis and a euro crisis.”
Analyses of the direct effects of a Greek default may far underestimate the indirect effects, such as the potential for a chain of disorderly market and bank-asset downgrades similar to what happened after the downfall of Lehman Brothers in 2008, she says. “If the culmination of Greek default risk comes at the expense of disorderly developments in sovereign and bank credit markets, then European financial integration and the euro in its current form will be at risk,” she says.
Data from the Bank for International Settlements show that French and then German banks have by far the biggest exposure to Greek debt, which should not be a surprise to the market, says Sara Yates, foreign exchange strategist at Barclays Capital, based in London. “What is more important for the euro is how and when Greece restructures,” she says. “Our economics team does not expect Greece to restructure in 2011.”
Restructuring Greek debt before the country makes progress in moving toward fiscal balance and putting the country on a more sustainable footing would be putting the cart before the horse, according to Yates. What’s more, an early restructuring would increase the likelihood of contagion to the rest of the periphery, she says.
An early and disorderly restructuring of Greece’s debt may occur if Greece fails to enact its five-year austerity plan, but this is only a risk and is not the most likely scenario, Yates says. “Our central scenario remains for the euro area and the euro to muddle through, particularly as Spain has taken some important steps forward, helping it to remain decoupled from the periphery,” she says. “We expect the euro to continue to shrug off concerns [related to the debt crisis] and to grind higher versus the dollar, supported by the European Central Bank’s tightening bias, much as it has done over the past 12 months.”
‘Least Ugly’ Contest
The euro versus the dollar looks to remain a “least ugly” contest for the time being, until uncertainty over the US and European debt problems begins to subside, says Michael Woolfolk, a managing director and senior currency strategist in the global markets business of BNY Mellon. Although the outlook for US fiscal and monetary policy is unclear, the outlook for US growth and inflation is for both to move higher, he says. US core consumer inflation rose more than expected in May to post its largest increase in nearly three years, due to increases in apparel and vehicle costs. At an annual rate, the increase was 1.5%, up from 1.3% in April, but still quite low.
The US economic recovery appears to have hit a soft patch, but recent data indicate that the slowdown is less severe than is widely believed, Woolfolk says. “The soft patch may not be the double-dip scenario many had feared,” he says.
“While clearly handicapped by high levels of unemployment and debt service, consumer demand remained brisk throughout the severe winter weather and has been stable this spring, apart from auto sales,” Woolfolk says. “A rebound in consumer spending this summer should keep growth in GDP near 3% for the second half of the year.”
Fed Program Ends
It remains to be seen how the end of QE II, the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing, will affect the dollar and the financial markets. The $600 billion treasury-bond-buying program through which the Fed flooded the markets with liquidity was scheduled to end by June 30. Some economists have warned that by monetizing the debt, the Fed was debasing the greenback. If this is true, then an end to QE II could give the dollar a boost.
The Treasury International Capital reporting system that collects data on US cross-border portfolio capital positions has shown a marked increase in foreign demand for short-dated treasuries over longer-term treasuries this year, Woolfolk says. This preference may be related to concerns over raising the US debt ceiling, as well as the lack of progress on US budget reform, he says.
Amid the rally in risky assets earlier this year, US investors have been increasingly moving money overseas in search of higher yields, Woolfolk says. At the same time, growing concern over the US fiscal deficit appears to be causing foreign investors to sell long-dated US treasuries in favor of shorter-dated securities and deposits.
Economic progress without social development is not sustainable, while social development without economic progress is not feasible.
Health for all
Health for all is one of the key issues worldwide due to the immediate link to health, through the participation of officials, focuses on three key health-related activities: advocacy, dialogue and action.
Food security and economic crises have shown the urgent need and the potential for sustainable development of food. One of every six people does not have access to adequate today nutrition. Makes today about one billion people on planet Earth.
The world economy is sailing uncharted waters in the wake of the global financial crisis. In order to build and sustain economic growth in mind, the Forum is to spearhead efforts to rethink the development of infrastructure, reform responsible capitalism and promote the free movement of people and goods.
Strengthening of the international monetary and financial system is a priority in the wake of the global financial crisis. Our work focuses on alternative investments, the development of financial systems, invest long term, financial management, as well as sustainable availability of mobile financial services and loans, to see the video click on the link the web version.
Seventh meeting World Forum 2012 global risks.
Opening of the annual meeting – Davos 2012.
IMF sees ‘dark clouds’ over the recovery
Steve Wozniak Says He Would Buy Facebook Stock.
By Julio Verissimo
In his latest quarterly Outlook of the global economy, Global Economic Outlook (GEO), Fitch Ratings has reduced their forecasts of growth for the major advanced economies, since the rates for the second quarter of 2011 were lower than had been expected initially, with economic growth stagnate at rates that had not been seen since 2009.
Economic growth is also slowing in emerging markets, although it will generally remain robust. The rating agency has lowered its projections for global economic growth to market exchange rate to 2.6% by 2011, compared to 3.1% in the previous edition of the GEO, to 2.7% by 2012 compared with 3.4% of earlier, and 3.1% for 2013 from 3.4 per cent before.
Although transient factors continue to have a role in the suffocation of economic activity, the recent intensification in the volatility of the financial markets with the greatest uncertainty in terms of fiscal policy have eroded the confidence of the private sector, affecting negatively both the investment and private consumption.
Fitch projects not a “double-dip” in its projections of case base for the global economy, while the probability of a recession has risen since the greater volatility in financial markets could increase the risk aversion and lead to less favourable credit conditions. Given that the risk of falling into another recession has increased, this edition of the GEO includes a special section that explores in more detail the potential impact that a hypothetical “double-dip” recession in the United States.UU. It would have on the recovery of the global economy.
On the other hand, is pointing that developing countries and economies in transition, mainly China, continue to be those who are driving the global recovery.
However, expected that its production growth moderating to 6% from 2011-2012 (below 7 per cent achieved in 2010), due to the slowdown in the advanced countries and phasing out stimulus measures.
According to projections, growth in Latin America will remain relatively firm at about four percent, below the 5.6% estimated for 2010.
The region based its growth on Brazil – which maintains its strong domestic demand driving the increase of exports from neighbouring countries – and in the strengthening of economic links with Asia’s emerging economies.
Between 2007 and late 2009 were lost at least 30 million jobs worldwide by the crisis. While there was a spike, especially in developing countries, needed create at least another 22 million new jobs to return to the level that had been before the crisis.
Despite progress in to unsubscribe the assets in the banking sector problems, risks remain multiple. Markets of real estate may deteriorate further, the credit growth remains weak, and persistently high unemployment levels. While fiscal stimulus will be eliminated, (low interest rates and quantitative easing) cheap money policies have maintained or increased in most of the countries with the intention of helping financial sectors to return to normal and thus stimulate economic activity. This, however, has introduced new risks, including greater volatility in the exchange rates between major currencies and volatile capital flows to emerging markets increased. These new factors are creating tensions that could undermine the recovery as well as, weaken the commitment of coordinating policies at the international level, which complicates efforts to deal with the imbalances of balance of payments and other structural problems that led to the crisis in the first instance.
Predicted that world gross product (PBM) will grow by 3.1 per cent in 2011 and 3.5 per cent in 2012. Such recovery may, however, suffer setbacks and slow down below 2 per cent, while some developed economies could return to see flooded into recession if some of the downside risks materialize.
United States of America, which rises from recession more long and deep.
Since the second world war, experience the pace of recovery weakest in its history. Although the level of gross domestic product (GDP) again to reach the peak before the crisis, a full recovery of the tardarà at least another four years employment in 2011. Growth in many European countries also remains low; some of them might still be in recession because of the drastic tax cuts. Japan growth will slow down markedly. Growth in developing countries will also tend to moderation.
Developing countries and economies in transition continue to drive the global recovery, but expected that growth in production will also slowing in 2011 and 2012. Developing Asian countries continue to show strong growth. In fact, the robust growth of the major developing economies, especially China, has been an important factor in the recovery of world trade and prices of primary goods, which is beneficial for growth in Latin America, the Commonwealth of independent States and part of Africa. However, the economic recovery remains below potential in three regions. Exporting economies of oil of Western Asia have not succeeded yet to stabilize the production after the cuts made in response to the global recession, so recovery of the product in this region is below the levels achieved before the crisis.
The challenge remains formidable for the long term development of many low-income countries. In particular, the recovery in many of the least developed countries (LDCs) will also be below its potential.A global recovery in downturn.
Percentage change of the gross world product prospects for employment, the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and inflation.
Between 2007 and late 2009, lost at least 30 million jobs on a global scale as a result of the global financial crisis. Despite an upturn in employment in some parts of the world, especially in developing countries, the world economy has yet to create at least another 22 million new jobs to return to the pre-crisis level. The current speed of recovery, this would require at least five years.
Long-term unemployment is on the rise
Since the pace of output growth remains below potential, especially in developed economies, the new jobs created are insufficient to rehire workers who have been dismissed. Moreover, considering that more Governments are embarking on fiscal adjustment, rapid recovery of employment prospects are even bleaker. Implications for employment in the long term are already palpable, as the number of structural unemployed or long-term has significantly increased in the majority of developed since 2007.
The recovery of employment has been fastest in developing countries
Workers in developing countries and economies in transition also have been drastically hit by the crisis, although job losses have emerged later and were much shorter than in developed countries. The impact on total employment also pacified by the absorption in the informal sector, even if it means that many more workers have assumed considered vulnerable jobs and lower wages. The growth of employment in developing countries began to re-emerge in the second half of 2009; Indeed, at the end of the first quarter of 2010 the rates of unemployment in several developing countries already had fallen to levels similar to those experienced before the crisis.
The crisis has caused a considerable setback in the progress towards the MDGs
The economic crisis has caused a considerable setback in the progress towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The goal of halved global rates of poverty by the year 2015 (from 1990 levels) remains accessible, at least for the world as a whole though not be achievable in sub-Saharan Africa or, possibly, in some parts of South Asia. However, the crisis has made significantly more unattainable goals of universal primary education, reducing infant and maternal mortality and the improvement of the environmental and health conditions. Economic growth and social expenditure required already raised before the crisis important macroeconomic challenges, but these have become even more pressing in cases in which the adversity caused by the crisis has been significant.
Unfortunately, the trend towards fiscal adjustments is build even in developing countries which had reaffirmed the principle of safeguarding the priority social spending. This is a worrying trend, especially when the GDP growth is still well below its potential and tax revenues have declined significantly due to the crisis. Especially for low-income countries, it will be essential to ensure sufficient support through official aid to development (ODA) to help achieve the MDGs.
Inflation does not represent a current danger, except in some parts of South Asia
Current inflation rates have remained at very low levels despite the massive monetary expansion. Except in some Asian economies, where increasingly strong inflationary pressures reflected a combination of factors of supply and demand, inflation expectations remain low in the near future, due to the stagnation in credit expansion and persistent breaches of production as well as employment in developed economies. Trade and prices of primary goods.
The upturn in world trade slowed during the year 2010
World trade continued to recover in 2010, but the thrust of growth observed during the first half of the year has been exhausted. While the volume of exports of many emerging economies has been reached, sometimes with more than before the crisis peaks, the exports of developed countries still have yet to recover fully. He is expected that world trade growing at a pace close to 6.5 percent in 2011 and 2012, moderating on the growth of 10.5 per cent achieved in 2010.
Despite the gradual recovery of the past two years, the values of the imports of the three large developed economies were in August 2010 still well below the peaks observed before the crisis. Meanwhile, the recovery of exports of these economies reflects rapid growth of imports from the countries of East Asia and Latin America. The question now is whether emerging economies can continue to act as engines of growth of world trade in the immediate future, especially considering that push experienced in the initial phase of recovery seems to go missing since that growth in developed countries remains weak.
Financial factors are exacerbating volatility in the prices of food and other primary goods
Most commodity prices have recovered. The world price of oil fluctuated around $78 per barrel during 2010, compared to an average of $62 in 2009. However, expected that the price of oil decreases slightly in 2011. World metal prices followed a similar trend in 2010 and it is expected that they repunten slightly in 2011 and 2012.
Food prices decreased during the first half of 2010, but recovered in the second. While the expansion of the global surface and weather conditions were favourable in the main producing areas, helping significantly to increase the global supply of food during 2009 and early 2010, more adverse atmospheric factors in mid-2010 affected crops.
In addition, financial speculation has amplified the variations in the prices of many commodities. It is estimated that food prices will continue responding to supply shocks and the actions of speculators in the derivatives markets for primary goods.
Global finance for development
Net transfers from developing countries to developed countries increased again in 2010 and the trend will continue.
In developing countries, taken together, continued to transfer large amounts of financial resources to developed countries. In 2010, net transfers amounted to approximately $557 billion – a slight increase over the previous year level. As it has been constant for over one decade, much of net transfers reflected excessive accumulation of reserves of the countries in development. In the future, expected that the net transfer of resources from developing countries will grow moderately, at the same time increasing current account imbalances. The prevalence of the previous model to the crisis, in which poor countries as group transferred significant amounts of resources to countries much more rich, responds to the need felt by the countries in development of accumulating foreign exchange reserves as a form of self-protection against global economic crises or instances of the global financial market turbulence, increased volatility of exchange rates and proliferation of private short-term capital flows.
The net flow of privately to developing countries have increased significantly
Net flows towards developing countries private capital have rebounded strongly since its fall in 2008 and early 2009. Investors seek more cost-effective given that economic growth in emerging markets and other developing economies has been much stronger than in the more advanced economies. Moreover, the monetary easing widespread in developed countries has been maintained, and hence rates very low interest.
Due to the continuing situation of fragility and excess liquidity in the financial markets of developed countries, investors have directed part of its portfolio investments to emerging markets. Largely this increase in private capital flows has been short-term and volatile character capital investment, although foreign direct investment (FDI) has also increased, especially in the extractive industries of raw materials export economies.
The crisis has increased the need for ODA, but has complicated the fulfilment of agreed commitments
The global financial crisis and the economic recession of 2008 have had a negative impact on many developing countries, and most extreme character in many low-income countries, so delivery of assistance official development assistance agreed it is even more critical. But although the net transfers to low-income countries has been positive during the year 2010, the deliveries are below what is offered by the donor community. In addition, the fragile recovery in the developed countries and the possible threat of a double dip recession are increasing uncertainty about the future fulfilment of the agreed levels of aid.
The external debt situation has improved in many developing countries, but problems persist
Despite the improvement in the debt situation in many countries before the crisis, some countries, including middle-income small countries, remained in a position of vulnerability. In the wake of the crisis, other developing economies have returned to face debt situations rather critical. Total external debt (public and private) of developing as a proportion of GDP increased to 24.8 per cent in 2009, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous year. In addition, the trend towards a gradual drop in service of debt relative to income for exports has been reversed as a result of the fall in the dollar value of GDP and exports. Similarly, the percentage of external debt on the exports of developing countries and economies in transition increased from 64.1 per cent in 2008 to 82.4 per cent in 2009. Moreover, in many countries the percentage of debt increased substantially since the crisis management led to a rapid increase in public debt. Despite the commendable progress in cancel the debt of heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC), thirteen of the forty countries in this group are qualified “at risk” or “high risk” debt overhang. Meanwhile, seven low-income countries that are not HIPCS as countries facing serious debt problems have been reported.
The persistence of the problems of external debt of low- and middle-income countries, as well as the increase in sovereign debt problems in a number of developed countries, indicate that existing agreements to deal with debt problems have reached a limit. These situations also emphasize the urgent need to establish an international mechanism for renegotiation of sovereign debt that allows countries to restructure their debt in a methodical and comprehensive way.
Some progress in the development of a framework for the regulation of the financial sector has been reached
A reform programme established by the Group of twenty (G-20) saw the introduction of macro-prudential supervision to take duly into account the systemic risk and the stability of the financial system in general, including pro-cíclicos risks and the so-called moral hazard, caused by the financial activities of systemically important institutions. A new package of reform of capital investments and requirements of liquidity, Basel III, was agreed by the Basel Committee on banking supervision. This agreement requires that banks have larger capital and reserve amounts to deal with outstanding loans, in order to increase its strength in turbulent market conditions. But even though this is an important step in the desired direction, the agreement is limited to the banking sector traditional, aside from financial institutions of another character, such as banks, investment and hedge funds as well as operations in financial derivative markets and others for the style. Seen that have been particularly the latter which have had an important role in triggering the global crisis in 2008, the new norms of liquidity and capital should be applicable to all institutions and markets of a similar nature.
Uncertainties and risks
The basis for 2011 and 2012 scenario is subject to uncertainties and risks which are primarily inclined down fiscal austerity would involve the risk of slowing the pace of recovery.
While recovery remains weak, the sense of urgency and willingness to move in tandem the fiscal and monetary policies have gone missing during the year 2010. Growing concerns about fiscal sustainability, especially in developed countries, seems to be giving priority on the fear that the phasing out of fiscal stimulus or a rapid shift towards fiscal austerity phase a slowdown in the pace of recovery, or which do not reduce unemployment in instances in which economic growth is weak rather cause a rise in the rates of public debt. Given that budget deficits have expanded considerably, public debt in developed countries will continue to rise, even under so-called conservatives, surpassing 100 percent of GDP, on average, in the coming years. Therefore, the Governments of many advanced economies face significant and growing funding needs. Moreover, the risks of financial fragility has increased because of the way in which the liabilities of the banking sector during the crisis became public debt: Governments have ensured a lot of bank liabilities in exchange for purchases of Government securities by private banks. Thus, increases in the risk perceived on the financial stability of any of these parties will be transmitted to the other, forming a vicious cycle that could increase the systemic risk.
The increase in the volatility of the exchange rate continues to be a risk
The exchange rates between major currencies experienced high volatility during the year 2010, and the failure to maintain the stability of the exchange rate between the three major international reserve currencies has caused problems for the currencies of emerging economies. Moreover, factors such as the increase in capital flows to emerging economies, driven by quantitative easing in developed countries and reallocation of portfolio of international investors, as well as the weakening of the dollar, have exerted an upward pressure on rates of change in some emerging economies. Developing countries have responded by intervening in currency markets and / or imposing capital controls to prevent loss of trade competitiveness or the proliferation of financial bubbles. Continuing instability, currency, accompanied by a growing perception of misalignment of exchange rates, could lead to trade disputes or even cause waves of protectionist measures and reprisals from around the world, with the consequence of jeopardizing global growth and destabilize financial markets.
As well as a lack of coordination in the rebalancing of the world economy
Global imbalances may begin to grow again, which in turn will help create greater instability in the financial markets. The plausibility of imbalances will depend on the performance of the economies in the implementation of the necessary structural adjustments. However, delineation of these adjustments is to-do as they weigh the uncertainties about how the future prospects are affected by a slowdown in growth, the persistence of high rates of unemployment, the increasing volatility of exchange rates and sovereign debt problems. Even if the global imbalances do not seem to weigh significantly in the short term, the underlying trends in assets and liabilities international pointing in a direction of risk, particularly in that the global financial crisis has led to an increase in net external liabilities of the United States.
Quantitative easing measures accompanied by a further depreciation of the dollar could facilitate that United States increase the pace of inflation and manages thus to alleviate the burden of their net international liabilities, but this option may significantly affect trade and international financial markets.
In addition, the decline in the dollar would increase import prices in the United States, the largest consumer market, and therefore eroding purchasing power resulting in a drop in world trade. Ultimately, this path would be the antithesis of the boom in the consumption of United States, who had led world economic growth before the financial crisis.
There that by increasing concerns over a possible weakness of the dollar which overhead to exports, is expected that developing countries will be inclined to intervene in the currency markets, as it has been. However, the intervention in the currency markets increases the risk of increasing tensions in international trade and foreign exchange markets, which could undermine even more international cooperation produced at the level of the G-20. A decrease in commitment to the coordination of economic policies at the international level would weaken the prospects of a more balanced and sustained global recovery.
Five major policy challenges to address
The existence of potential harmful side effects of national policies has once again highlighted the need to strengthen international policy coordination.
Unfortunately, during the year 2010 the spirit of cooperation between those responsible for policy in the major economies was has been waning. World economic situation and prospects 2011 document suggests that to avoid a relapse into recession and move towards a more sustainable and balanced global recovery is required to address at least five major policy challenges.
First, follow-up and coordination of stimulus
First, it is necessary to continue making use of the broad fiscal space that is still available in many countries, so that fiscal stimulus in tandem with expansionary monetary policies can continue to encourage global recovery. Such actions should be properly coordinated between the major economies to ensure a recovery of global growth to increase external demand for economies that have exhausted their margin tax. Lacking a new net fiscal stimulus and a faster recovery of bank loans to the productive sector, it is more than likely that growth for the foreseeable future remains anemic in many countries.
Second, better approach to fiscal stimulus
Secondly, fiscal policy must be more focused towards employment and the promotion of structural changes aimed at sustainable growth. A sensible policy would be to orient public investments to alleviate bottlenecks in infrastructure that obstruct the growth. A priority area would be the expand public investment in non-polluting and renewable, energy in line with the arrangements for the reduction of GHG (greenhouse), as well as infrastructure investments that are effective in resisting the buffeting of climate change. Another area could be to expand and improve public transport networks, which would create significant new jobs to help reduce GHG emissions, particularly in areas of rapid urbanization. Another essential ingredient consists of social protection policies which serve to cushion the impact of the economic crisis as well as to boost aggregate demand and contribute to the sustainability of economic growth.
Third, greater effectiveness of monetary policy, to take into account international side effects
The third challenge is to create greater synergy between the fiscal and monetary stimulus, to counteract the detrimental side effects at the international level, as the tensions created in the currency markets and the volatility inherent in short-term capital flows. To do so, it would be necessary to reach an agreement on the scale, speed and synchronization of policy of quantitative easing in a broader context of goals aimed at correcting global imbalances. Also required further reform of financial regulation, including the management of transnational capital flows, as well as reform the global reserve system in order to reduce dependence on the US dollar.
Fourth, a more predictable access to financing to achieve the MDGs
The fourth challenge is to ensure that sufficient and predictable resources available to developing countries, especially those that have limited fiscal space and face great needs in their development strategies there is. In particular, these resources will be essential to accelerate progress towards the achievement of the MDGs, as well as to increase investments for a sustainable and lasting growth. Donor countries should, in addition to the commitments of aid agreed, consider mechanisms to decouple aid flows from their own macroeconomic cycles of avoiding contractions of the development aid in times of crisis, which is probably when the need of the development aid becomes more urgent.
Fifthly, goals more specific and binding for the coordination of international politics
The fifth challenge is to find mechanisms more credible and effective coordination of policies among the major economies. In this sense, there is some urgency in creating a more specific and operating framework within the G-20 to reduce global imbalances. For example, a useful mechanism could be targets of “bands of current accounts”. To be clear and verifiable objectives would contribute to that parties should feel responsible for their achievement, while the possible loss of reputation for non-compliance would be an incentive to keep abreast of such agreements. The goals of “current account bands” could in turn serve to emphasize the joint responsibility of countries with surplus and deficit to help sustain global effective demand.
Should be noted that setting targets for current account is not end in itself, rather it would serve as a guide, directing efforts towards a path of sustainable growth for the world as a whole, therefore including actions oriented to face other challenges mentioned above. Also, and in particular, the objectives of current account may be considered as an intermediate step to enact fundamental reforms to the global system of reserves and financial regulation, required to prevent a future financial instability world and even more possible collapse
European Telecommunications Market
This profiles the CEE countries of Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. It includes trends and developments in telecommunications, mobile, Internet, Internet economy, broadband, digital TV and converging media including broadband, triple play and IPTV. Subjects covered include:
· Market and industry analyses, trends and developments;
· Facts, figures, statistics and broadband forecasts to 2018;
· Industry issues and regulatory developments;
· Research, marketing and benchmarking
· Major Players, revenues, subscribers and network deployments
· VoIP, ADSL, ADSL2+, FttH/FttB, WiFi, WiMAX, IPTV, VoD, triple play, digital TV, DTTV, 3G, and HSDPA.
Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in Central Europe profiles the five countries of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. While all are EU countries, the market in each one varies significantly, both in size and wealth: Slovenia’s GDP per capita is more than double that of Poland’s although Poland’s population is 19 times that of Slovenia.
Impacting on the telecoms market is EU-mandated competition, decreasing prices and leading to the introduction of new services by competing operators and incumbents alike. This report offers an informative insight into the Central Eastern Europe region, covering regulatory developments, major players in the fixed-line, broadband, convergence and mobile markets, the development of new product offerings for the aforementioned markets, as well as presenting a wide range of industry related statistics in addition to broadband penetration forecasts to the year 2018.
Mobile subscribers and penetration by country
Telecoms & Broadband Business
The explosion in mobile communications in the developing world has created social and economic changes that have exceeded all expectations and predictions – even those made as recently as five years ago. There are still countries lagging behind, but now is the time to move on to the next stage – and that means broadband. Already the developed world is showing an enormous appetite for mobile broadband, so the demand is most certainly there.
The rapid development of low cost Smartphone, projected to approach 50€ soon, and tablets, now already under 200€, means that many people in the world who are not PC literate or have the ability to buy a PC – will be able to experience the broadband Internet for the first time. Thus in the same way that the majority of people in the world made their first phone calls with a wireless phone; the majority of people in the world will have the first rich media Internet experience via wireless communications.
Broadband is the facilitator for a range of services that are of great value to governments, businesses and people in rural and regional areas as well as in the cities. However a holistic government policy is needed to achieve the associated social and economic benefits – a policy that takes into account the ICT infrastructure requirements of the various sectors, the most appropriate use of mobile spectrum for both mobile broadband and the fixed-wireless network, and how this fits into the overall national broadband plan – particularly in relation to the development of fibre optic networks for the underlying core.
Once positive and comprehensive trans-sector (national purpose) policies and the costly underlying infrastructure are in place, the business model for private investment is fairly straightforward. The demand for broadband is clear. People are prepared to pay for it if the price is affordable. Broadband facilitates social and economic developments in healthcare, education, media, e-commerce, m-banking, public safety communications. etc. Businesses and governments will invest in e-services if the infrastructure is in place – but utilities-based infrastructure may be required in order for the underlying infrastructure to be put in place.
For that reason comprehensive government policies are required to build on the economic development and innovation that has been generated by the mobile explosion – policies that will place mobile broadband development within the context of the emerging digital economy. Based on a trans-sector vision, rather than on silo-based policies, spectrum regulations can be developed that will allow society to reap the social and economic benefits of these new technologies. Policy makers should provide for abundant spectrum allocations of the right prime spectrum in order to create the abundant broadband wireless capacity needed to meet the promise of the mobile explosion.
We know that each new generation of mobile innovations doubles the capacity needed for these new applications and services. Moreover these innovations are coming at a much faster rate than innovations in network technology so demand is outstripping supply. In fact in developed markets, demand for mobile broadband is growing at 100% per year or greater while cost effective supply technology is continues to grow at only 40% per year. Spectrum allocation and management are therefore critical, and unless this broader picture is taken into account countries will not be able to develop the right policies and regulations to take advantage of these opportunities.
What has also become clear is that, led by Apple, these new technologies have become intuitive to users. No training is needed and people do not have to be computer-literate to participate in these new developments.
Another important element is affordability. We have seen that mobile operators in developing economies are able to offer voice and low speed data service at very competitive prices. Today facilities are provided to make it possible for almost every person on earth to use mobile. Cheap and even free SIM cards are available; communities offer free or low-cost communal service; money transfers allow people to use mobile services paid for by family, friends, social institutions, and so on.
The rapid developments of rich media wireless applications have caught governments and regulations off-guard. It often takes 3-5 years to develop new policies, while new technologies are now developed every couple of years, and new applications and services are often developed within days.
LTE in the UK – Deployment Plans, Operator Strategies, Spectrum and Forecasts 2012 – 2015
With over 7 million subscriptions and a penetration level of over 11 %, the UK is one of the leading mobile broadband markets not only in Western Europe but throughout the world. As a result, the UK was one of the first countries to witness HSPA rollouts over UMTS networks, followed by widespread commercialization of USB dongles and mobile broadband subscription packages. In the UK, a similar adoption strategy was anticipated with the introduction of the 3GPP LTE standard, that is widely endorsed as the next generation and most cost efficient standard for mobile broadband, with over 36 commercial deployments worldwide.
However, spectrum congestion issues have considerably delayed commercial LTE adoption in the UK, putting the UK behind other major mobile broadband markets such as Germany, the U.S, Sweden, Saudi Arabia and South Korea that have already started offering commercial mobile broadband services over LTE. Nonetheless, due to rising pressure from operators, the Government and consumers alike, spectrum auctions are expected by Q4’2012 and commercial commitments expected by Q1’2013. With a number of LTE trials already operating, most notably O2’s recently launched trial in London; LTE adoption is set to become a reality, in the UK, with subscriptions anticipated to reach 8 million by 2015, representing a CAGR of 198.76 % between 2013 and 2015. This report provides insights to the key factors affecting LTE adoption within the UK, including operator strategies and roadmaps, spectrum and regulatory issues and subscriptions forecasts up to 2015, in addition to providing an overview of the current state of the worldwide LTE market.
The Signals and Systems Telecom team follows a thorough process when examining the market under consideration. The primary steps of the process are information gathering, organization and analysis. The primary sources of the information gathering process are interviews with executives, business professionals, and engineers within the telecommunications industry sector. Secondary data sources are also utilized which include corporate financial performance reports, industry periodicals and trade group reports.
The information is then organized into a database incorporating industry trends, regional policies and demographics. Assigned analysts and query specialists then apply statistical models to forecast industrytrends. The information is then generated in a graphical format to allow quick identification of market developments.
The Top Five African Markets for ICT Investment
Top 5 most attractive African ICT markets, benchmarks them against each other and against regional averages, outlines currently existing or upcoming investment opportunities and analyses the risks specific to each market. The end result is a single index figure that tells investors ‘how many times more attractive’ a country’s ICT market is compared to others, taking all the above criteria into account.
GDP growth between 4 and 8% per year
150 million potential customers in five countries
More than 100% annual subscriber growth
More than 1000% growth potential over the coming years
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
New operator licences
Broadband boom expected from new fibre networks
SECTOR IN GROWTH
Grows 13% in 2011, the year of the crisis.
Spain leads with 23% of the population.
Iphone users are 15% of the market and navigate
Symbian is 44% of the market and sail 23% in
Android is 25% of the market and navigate in 10% of pages HTML and mobile.
SALES PER OPERATING SYSTEMS
Android users an average of 22 apps.
Nokia and BlackBerry a mean of 5 and 10 respectively.
DOWNLOADS APPLE STORE
More than 300,000 applications.
70% of the apps are free.
More than 100,000,000 users.
More than 87,000 applications.
70% Of the apps are free..
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